I’m So Bored With the USA: Kill Bill

 

“But it’s too late to say you’re sorry

How would I know?

Why should I care? “

 

 

Before anyone complains “Kill Bill” refers to legislative bills not the police!

 

We start in the US with Trumps “big, beautiful bill”, which passed just before his 4th July deadline, despite much criticism.

What is all the fuss about?

Well, Trump is extending the big tax cuts in his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which lowered taxes and increased the standard deduction for all taxpayers, but generally benefited high earners more than most. Those provisions were set to expire after this year, but the “big, beautiful bill” makes them permanent,

There is an array of increases that ease the standard deduction by $1,000 for individuals, $1,500 for heads of households and $2,000 for married couples, and tax write-offs for tips and overtime. All of this expires at the end of 2028, when Trump’s term as president is meant to end.

Other than high earners the big winners are Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) who will receive $45bn for detention facilities, $14bn for deportation operations and billions of dollars more to hire an additional 10,000 new agents by 2029. More than $50bn is allocated for the construction of new border fortifications, which will probably include a wall along the border with Mexico.

To reduce the cost of the bill, two major federal safety-net programs: Medicaid, which provides healthcare to poor and disabled Americans, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap), which helps people afford groceries, are being slashed. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates the Medicaid changes could cost as many as 10.6 million people their healthcare, and about eight million people, or one in five recipients, their Snap benefits.

The University of Pennsylvania and Yale researchers calculated that this will result in an estimated 51,311 preventable deaths p.a.. The final version, with its deeper cuts to Medicaid and other federal health programs, could be even more dangerous.

 

‘this will result in an estimated 51,311 preventable deaths p.a’

 

 

The bill will phase out many tax incentives created by Congress during Joe Biden’s presidency designed to encourage consumers and businesses to use electric vehicles and other clean-energy technology.

So, the rich will get richer and the poor will be denied benefits. The latter are Trump’s MAGA base, and I assume the anti-immigrant parts of the bill will make them feel better when they can’t pay the mortgage or rent!

The bill will increase the US government’s authority to borrow, known as the debt limit, by $5tn, and the deficit by $3.3tn through 2034, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

Overall, all of Trump’s economics are inflationary. Before explaining this, remember the US has a balance of payments deficit; they import more than they export.

Let’s start with a weak dollar to juice-up exports. Great if, like China, you are a net exporter, but when as a net importer, imports will cost more, therefore it’s inflationary.

Trump targeted nations who were net exporters to the US, however they reciprocated and matched his proposed tariffs, meaning imports will cost more, again importing inflation.

His big beautiful bill will put money in the pockets of the few, and they buy luxury goods, much of which is imported.

Lastly, he wants to cut interest rates to juice-up demand, again this can generate inflation.

So far as I can see, US inflation must increase, traditionally, this is combated by rising interest rates!

 

‘all of Trump’s economics are inflationary’

 

In summary, whilst Trump owes his electoral success to his Maga base, they will be, yest again, the losers. Should this bill becomes law, it would lower average household resources for the poorest 10% percent by 3.9% p.a., $1,600, during the period 2026-2034. In contrast, resourced for the richest 10% percent would increase by 2.3$ percent, $12,000, according to Congressional Budget Office.

In response, Elon Musk, Trump’s former buddy, who largely funded his election campaign, has vowed to unseat lawmakers who support the budget bill, which he has criticized because it would increase the country’s deficit by $3.3tn. Musk is suggesting he will create the America Party, saying it will be “a new political party that actually cares about the people.”

In addition to criticizing the bill’s spending provisions, he has bemoaned its slashing of subsidies for electric vehicles, saying that the bill “gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future”.

Whilst Musk maybe yesterday’s man in the court of King Donald, he is winning new fans in China. Hours after the bill passed the US Senate, the hashtag #MuskWantsToBuildAnAmericaParty went viral on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform similar to Musk’s X, receiving more than 37m views.

One comment summed up the mood on the platform: “Brother Musk, you’ve got over a billion people on our side backing you.”

Despite all of the economic uncertainty caused by Trump markets have rebounded and appear awash with cash looking to finance the corporate sector.

 

Musk is suggesting he will create the America Party, saying it will be “a new political party that actually cares about the people”

 

This week it was revealed that Meta is seeking to raise $29bn to finance its data-centre programme, and is considering using private credit markets to do so.

Mark Zuckerberg is one of the dark knights that surround King Donald, along with his chums from the private credit and hedge fund world, a coterie of tech billionaires, Silicon Valley financiers, and Peter Theil linked hedge funders. Musk was perhaps too volatile, showy and talkative for their tastes.

I can’t help but wonder if tightening bond spreads can be explained by diminishing demand caused by large funders using private credit rather than public bond markets.

We now turn to blighty and the debacle surrounding the governments ill-conceived Welfare Bill which, in a much watered down fashion, passed through the Commons despite 49 government MPs voting against it.

The immediate response from the government was to threaten; the money that would have been raised will have to be found elsewhere, in other words more austerity.

Even the governments own analysis showed that 150,000 more people would be forced into relative poverty as a result of their original proposals. Given this it seems inconceivable that this could have been proposed by a Labour government, or is it?

In February 2024 in “Red or Blue? Starmer Clearly Doesn’t Know”, I started to realise that Starmer was really a One Nation Tory, and subsequently I have seen little to change that opinion.

Labour party strategists clearly believe that the main threat to them comes from the right, and seem not to be worried by their exposed left flank. They perceive an ongoing battle to persuade voters in Labour’s “red wall” heartlands that the party really is for them, especially now that Reform are riding high in opinion polls.

The net result has seen the party failing to seduce the target audience while driving defections to the Lib Dems and Greens.

 

‘the governments own analysis showed that 150,000 more people would be forced into relative poverty’

 

 

MPs who had been warning of this are now demanding changing, as the rebellion on benefit cuts demonstrates.

As I wrote in “Rebel, Rebel”, the governments’ policy successes have been overwhelmed by their own goals.

Even in the deindustrialised North and Midlands, Farage has seized the mantle of radical changemaker, although his rhetoric will deliver little, if any, benefit.

Starmer doesn’t seem to understand that the majority of Reform support is both smaller and less biddable than the liberal-left defectors. A recent poll commissioned by Stanley Greenberg, a veteran US Democratic party strategist with close ties to Labour, found that almost 15% of current Lib Dem voters and 10% of Greens say there is a fair chance they could back Starmer. The equivalent numbers for Tory and Reform are 3% and 1% respectively.

As it stands the government is in danger of delivering nothing to anyone. They were, at best misguided by picking on pensioners and then disabled people, and seemingly forgot one of Labour’s defining principles, that of standing up for the poorest in society.

Obviously, with the bill so neutered Chancellor Reeves now has a gap to cover. Yesterday, during PMQ’s for whatever reason, this appeared such a burden that she was reduced to tears.

Now, irrespective of political creed this isn’t nice to see. What made it worse was the reaction of some in the right-wing media. Almost immediately, the Telegraph was publishing a series of ridiculous reactions claiming that Reeves’ tears were because the UK is about to default, speculating the bond market was on the verge of collapse, and Reeves’ successor was already planning a trip to Washington to beg an IMF bailout. All lies, but when did that ever stand in the way of a good story!

 

‘the government is in danger of delivering nothing to anyone’

 

Time and again the right takes control of the narrative, the classic example being Palestine where, despite more than questionable behaviour the Israel leadership and army can do wrong. Any criticism is immediately shouted-down as antisemitism.

The tale of the two bills in London and Washington both end with the similar results, albeit by differing routes; greater inequality.

In the US, Trump is quite unashamedly cutting taxes for the rich and benefits for the poor, resulting in a twist on the age old adage as, this time, the rich are getting richer with funds taken from the poor. In addition, Trump has saddled the country with an ever increasing debt burden to fund his racism.

One of the key differences between the countries is their attitude to debt.

Trump is leveraging up the USA with lower taxes and higher debt, ratcheting up inequality as the majority pay for the rich getting richer. It will likely create economic growth, fuelling the illusion that Trump is s financial genius, but it’s simply buy now and pay later look.

 

‘Both Britian and America are headed for the same dark place’

 

Yes, there are numerous commentators who will tell you that Trump’s tax-cuts are unsustainable, creating a deficit crisis and blowing-up the bond market. If, or perhaps, when there is a crisis, Trump will have a friend in the Fed as well as the Treasury and Fed, and we will see a repeat of 2008, printing money to further kick the can down the road.

On this side of the pond Chancellor Reeves tries to balance the budget and fund numerous urgent spending requirements in infrastructure, housing, defence, the NHS, and the out-of-control welfare budget explosion. Austerity beckons.

Trump has the freedom our Chancellor doesn’t. She is constrained by an uber-cautious Treasury, whilst the OBR haunts her every move. Both overlook the ongoing demand for Gilts and the expectation of rate cuts, which could provide the chancellor with a way to fund the unfunded £22bln back hole that has haunted her from the beginning.

The difference here is control, Trump has it and Starmer doesn’t. Not just in the media but over their electoral base; Trump’s MAGA voters love him, seeing him as their saviour, whilst Starmer is constantly haunted by a negative media, and is being squeezed by both left and right voters.

This is the media that gave us both Brexit and Johnson. Now they warn of left-wing plots , no doubt inspired further by the return of Jeremy Corbyn, painting pictures of urban violence and cities overrun by immigrants, especially Muslims.

Both Britian and America are headed for the same dark place, albeit by different routes, primarily because traditional politics has failed both,

 

 

“He didn’t even say “Goodbye”

He didn’t take the time to lie”

 

‘Today’s editorial is somewhat different as it focuses on one subject, Gaza. I have decided to do this because it highlights how dangerous the media can be. They immediately seized the initiative and it is all but impossible for anyone to criticise the actions of Israel without being branded antisemitic.

 There has been much talk about Kneecap and Bob Vylan, some of it has been a hysterical overreaction, and all of it is turning a blind eye to what is happening in Gaza and the West Bank.

The UK’s chief rabbi, Ephraim Mirvis, has condemned the BBC’s handling of Bob Vylan’s Glastonbury festival performance,  calling the group’s actions “vile Jew-hatred”, saying the duo’s appearance at the festival was “a time of national shame”.

Ephraim, before you call me an antisemite, I’m not, but I think the actions of Israel should be called into question. I find it totally inconceivable that a man of God thinks there is nothing wrong with violence against defenceless civilians?

In the 12-days that the world was distracted by events in Iran, the terrible humanitarian crisis in Gaza deteriorated even further. Detail as that can be found in the following link:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/01/gaza-israel-iran-war-idf

Can there be a valid reason why more than 550 people reportedly have been killed whilst seeking aid in Gaza in the past month?

The far-right coalition partners upon whom the Israeli PM depends want the “day after” to bring not a resurgence of life but the disappearance of Palestinians from Gaza – and beyond. Alongside Gaza, there has been an increase in violence and mass displacements in the occupied West Bank, with 943 Palestinians killed by settlers or security forces since 7 October 2023.

 Israel’s allies aren’t simply looking on, the US are behind the horrors of  the food scheme. Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, has suggested openly that the US no longer sees an independent Palestinian state as a goal. European nations, including the UK, which had edged towards recognising one, have backed off since Israel attacked Iran.

Within the EU, Israel’s biggest trading partner, reports have found that the country was probably breaching human rights duties under their trade deal, yet the bloc has not acted. The Spanish PM, Pedro Sánchez, has urged the EU to suspend, but nothing has happened.

It would appear that the EU and US are happy for Israel to do their dirty work for them.

Lyrically, we continue the “Kill Bill” theme borrowing from the film’s soundtrack. We open with “About Her” by Malcolm McLaren, and end with “Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down)” by Nancy Sinatra

Really, this isn’t a nice world. Not even remotely so….Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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