The Times They Are A-Changin’: Introduction 

 

 

“And you better start swimmin’ 

Or you’ll sink like a stone” 

 

 

 

 

When I decided to retire the last column, “I’m So Bored With the USA” in December 2025, I wanted to take stock of what the previous columns had focussed on and delivered. 

Readers may remember, these columns we born out the Brexit referendum and followed the postscript until we finally left the EU on the 31st January 2020. 

 

During the life of these columns we have seen five Tory PMs’  Messrs, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak, and the current Labour incumbent, Starmer. 

In the US, Trump came and went, to be followed by Biden, and now we have Trump II. 

Aside from Brexit, we have had Covid, a global pandemic, and numerous wars, of which the battles in Gaza, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely have the most global impact. 

The pandemic was followed by supply chain shocks to international trade, and Russia’s war impacted energy prices, both of which caused inflation to spike in many established economies. 

In the UK, inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, which, whilst high, was well short of  the 24.21% of 1975. It was a similar story in the US, with inflation peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. 

Over the life of the columns, the key underlying tenet has always been inequality. Unfortunately, going forward this is unlikely to change, because, if anything inequality is getting worse. 

‘the key underlying tenet has always been inequality. Unfortunately, going forward this is unlikely to change, because, if anything inequality is getting worse’

 

I picked the title, The Times They Are A-Changin’, as it reflects the global uncertainty we are surrounded by, much of which is as result of inequality. 

What we are seeing is what I had previously envisaged, a return to the politics of the 1930s, and the rise of hard-right governments. Then they were referred to as fascists, today they are populists. There is little difference, but being called populist seems to make them feel better about themselves. 

The US, under Trump II, is, as I predicted seeing the country slide inexorably in authoritarianism, based on ultra-nationalism. We are seeing state sponsored murder by ICE, who are seeking out minorities in states controlled by Democrats under the guise of illegal immigration and stopping the streets descending into anarchy. All of this is sold to the electorate as fighting the enemy within, and can only end badly. 

Overseas, Trump II is seeking out territories that have assets he can use and is using force, either military or trade-based to further his goals.  

His enemies can be simplified as being anyone that opposes him. Specifically, this includes Europe, China and Canada. The latter led by the farsighted and wholly realistic Mark Carney, who seems to have the measure of Trump. In Europe, Trump wants to shape countries in his own image, subverting their democracy through the dismantling of the EU. 

The president has become more an emperor, governing as he wishes, and using executive orders to circumvent the constitution and the checks and balances it imposes. He, along with members of the uber rich, especially those in tech, energy and defence are seeking to monetise the presidency.  

‘a return to the politics of the 1930s, and the rise of hard-right governments’

 

In the UK, we continue to bob-along the bottom; Starmer’s Labour government doesn’t know what it is, for that matter neither does he. As a result, we have a closet-Tory mess, hemmed in by economic orthodoxy and unsustainable, self-imposed fiscal targets. If you add Brexit to the mix you have the recipe for disaster. 

Closer economic ties with the US were supposed to be one of the bonuses of Brexit. Instead, we find ourselves faced with a president intent on destroying the old order, including the so-called special relationship and hobbling countries with trade tariffs. 

 

And so, looking forward what do I expect. 

Trump, at least for the foreseeable future will continue to dominate and set the tone of what is to come. The questions will be: 

• Domestically, can he overcome his lack of delivery on the economy and cost of living? 

• Will he continue to take the country down the road to authoritarianism and white nationalism? 

• Will his inevitable seizure of the fed give him control over monetary policy, and destabilise bond markets? 

• Elsewhere, where and how will his asset gathering and destabilising of other countries play out? 

 

In the UK, there are many unanswered questions around Labour and a potential new leader.  

There is the new look Tory party, devoid of many of the old dead horses, who are jumping ship to Reform. 

Turning to Reform, has their popularity peaked in the high-20s? If so, they are unlikely to form a majority government. Other questions include how does Farage deal with a rogue Trump? And, will all these Tory defectors detract from their anti-establishment credibility leaving them looking more like a retirement home? 

Economically, capitalism, in its current guise continues to fail the masses. Benchmarks such as stockmarkets and GDP become less and less relevant to them, replaced by unemployment and the Gini Coefficient (inequality). 

 

‘capitalism, in its current guise continues to fail the masses’

 

Stockmarkets continue to defy gravity, “roided-up” on AI euphoria and FOMO (”Fear of missing out”). Soon the bubble will burst and, I fear, it will be with a big bang. 

AI, despite its advantages has numerous downsides, not least unemployment. AI could be to white-collar employment what deindustrialisation in the 80s was to blue-collar workers. 

Already, research by Morgan Stanley shows that the UK is losing more jobs than it is creating because of AI and is being hit harder than rival large economies. 

British companies reported that AI had resulted in net job losses over the past 12 months, down 8% – the highest rate among other leading economies including the US, Japan, Germany and Australia. The research surveyed companies using AI for at least a year across five industries: consumer staples and retail, real estate, transport, healthcare equipment and cars. 

 

It found that: 

• British businesses reported an average 11.5% increase in productivity aided by AI.  

• US businesses reported similar gains, but created more jobs than they cut. 

• UK workers are being hit particularly hard by the rise of AI, as higher costs and taxes also weigh on the job market. 

 

Other subjects to consider include the seemingly unstoppable rise of China, and how that interacts with Putin’s Russia. 

 

“roided-up” on AI euphoria and FOMO (”Fear of missing out”). Soon the bubble will burst and, I fear, it will be with a big bang

 

In the middle-east Gaza continues to hog the headlines. It now seems inevitable that Israel will dominate the region, which could lead to next generation of freedom fighters or terrorists depending on your viewpoint. 

Lastly, there is Europe. Firstly, I foresee Trump’s actions as strengthening the EU rather than weakening it, and increased defence spending could stimulate moribund economies. 

 

There is one final question; Brexit, what will happen? Brexin, perhaps….  

 

 

“The order is rapidly fadin’ 

And the first one now 

Will later be last” 

 

 

 

@coldwarsteve

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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