The Times They Are A-Changin’: Everything Ends at Some Point Part II

 

 

I concluded the prequel, saying that, in both the UK and US, virtually every neoliberal policy had failed, leaving behind rising inequality and slower economic growth.

 

 

The economic power enjoyed by today’s elite has enabled them to influence policy to such an extent that they have become the rules, an imbalance that has disenfranchised the majority, the “left behind.”

 

The GFC was a catalyst for political change in both the UK and US, although its actual impact only became visible in 2016; the year of “vote leave”, and Donald Trump election as US president.

These two events were the first-time either country had experienced the impact of hard-right populism.

Populism played well with those left behind, as the ideal is based on dividing society into two antagonistic camps—”the pure people” versus “the corrupt elite”, with the emphasis being on the will of the people. There is a focus on cultural identity, nationalism, anti-immigration, and protecting “the people” from threats posed by elites and outsiders.

Populist leaders seek to identify crises, making everything seem urgent, and defining situation in black-and-white moral terms. Their solutions appear simple, but, in truth, they aren’t actual solutions merely placebo’s designed to humour or placate the majority.

As I wrote in Part I, UKIP which osmosed into Reform, and their collective success forced the traditional party of the right, the Conservatives, to mimic their policies.

In the US, the Trump administration of 2016-2020 didn’t quite catch fire and was overtaken by Covid. The most memorable part was the fractious 2020 election were Tump alleged the election was “stolen”. This reached a nadir on his successors inauguration day, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol.

Trump II is a very different event, ruling wherever he can without congressional oversight, imposing trade tariffs as he sees fit, suppressing “immigrants” with a force akin to something a dictator would require, invading countries as he wishes, and generally destabilising the post-1945 world order.

Sometimes, quotes can summarise everything:

“Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth.

Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today.

They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them.

What a great honour it is to do so!”

 

‘I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honour it is to do so!”

 

Or, there is this from Saturday when Trump suggested that the US may carry out more strikes on Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun.”

Trump’s electoral powerbase are his MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters, a fusion of economic nationalism, strict border security, and an “America First” foreign policy, aimed at reversing perceived cultural shifts and restoring traditional values. It is driven by a shared identity and sense of resentment against elite institutions.

Within this is view that economic globalisation was a conspiracy against US interests, with treasonous politicians letting foreigners undercut domestic industry with their cheap exports, causing blue-collar jobs leak offshore.

They wallow in nostalgia for a mythologised American golden age, when the nation wasn’t polluted by degenerate liberal and mandatory racial diversity.

This fuses together economic and cultural grievance forms the foundation of Trump’s electoral base, which is a populist revolt against the political establishment, effectively mobilizing a broad coalition of voters who felt economically and culturally sidelined.

 

‘These voters are the “left behind, white working-class, who identified with Trump, who is their champion against “Democratic elites” and a “deep state”‘

 

These voters are the “left behind, white working-class, who identified with Trump, who is their champion against “Democratic elites” and a “deep state”. They identify with his “regular guy” persona and belligerent style. His lack of government experience they view as a strength, enabling him to “drain the swamp”, which he is beginning, dismantling the established federal bureaucracy and increasing his power.

The movement has an open-architecture, allowing it to embrace diverse groups, from libertarian “tech bros” to post-liberal intellectuals, each assigning their own meanings and priorities to the movement. This allows for a sense of shared identity and group pride, blurring the lines between the individual and the cause.

MAGA is culturally conservative, espousing traditional values, Christianity and embraces the culture wars. Trump has leveraged grievances over immigration, “woke” culture, and changing social norms to unite his base against perceived “internal enemies”, actively reversing social changes regarding gender roles, LGBTQ+ rights,

Immigrants have become the scapegoat for nationalistic white voters, and Trump is championing strict border security, emphasising border barriers, mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, and ending illegal immigration. He has ICE agents enforcing these measure, allowing them with complete autonomy to do whatever they wish.

Protest against their actions are being clamped-down on, and nine protesters in Texas have been found guilty of providing support for terrorism and other charges, with prosecutors alleging that anti-ICE activists were actually part of an antifa cell.

They were all found guilty, and face anything from 10 to life-in-prison

This is seen as part of the administrations reaction to the killing of Charlie Kirk, a right-wing activist last year, Trump administration officials vowed to go after leftwing groups and designated antifa, short for anti-fascist, as a domestic terrorist group, even though the president did not have the lawful authority to do so. Antifa is also not an organization but instead used to describe a constellation of leftwing beliefs.

Media outlets are actively repressed should they be deemed critical of his presidency, with mainstream providers derided as dealing in “fake news”, and as the “enemy of the people”. They have been replaced with an insular information environment, which has allowed Trump to overcome significant scandals.

This political umbrella for Trump’s MAGA movement, was the Republican Party, which he systematically reshaped, forcing other candidates to adopt MAGA-aligned strategies and marginalizing the “Never Trump” old guard.

The movement tapped into youth organisations such as Turning Point USA helped recruit younger voters (Gen Z) by focusing on right-wing discussions at thousands of high schools and universities.

Trump has displayed a political agility moving with event such as Covid and Russian induced inflation to further tap into voters frustration and dissatisfaction. This agility helped his 2024 re-election, allowing him to focus on inflation despite the strong overall performance of the economy during the Biden-years.

In a similar nimble way, he has overcome legal challenges and criminal convictions, framing them as part of a “corrupt conspiracy” against his supporters, solidified his base’s loyalty.

Above all, MAGA is based on the cult of Trump; only he is the only figure capable of fixing a broken system.

Trump’s cherished policy instrument for restoring national glory is the tariff. He has called it “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. Trade tariffs were supposed to bring jobs back, protect American industries, and prioritise domestic economic interests over globalist policies. They have recently been ruled illegal by the supreme court who decided that he had acted ultra vires when implementing them.

“the most beautiful word in the dictionary”

 

The receipts from tariffs were to be used to fund tax cuts for the rich, all part of a tax and benefits strategy that is further the redistribution of wealth upwards.

The downside of tariffs is inflation, as producers and retailers simply passing-on the costs to consumers. This has kept inflation sticky and exacerbated the cost-of-living crisis.

Inflation impacts most on those with the least. It was already rising due to the cost of tariffs, and will only get worse as Trump’s war with Iran is likely to have similar inflationary effects on energy prices as those experienced in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. This will lead to slower growth and a further tightening of the cost-of-living crisis. The end scenario is a recession, with his MAGA supporters impacted the most.

This was contravenes his “America First” foreign policy, which was supposed to end their involvement in overseas wars.

The war contravenes internation law, and is anti-constitutional, undertaken without the permission of Congress.

Furthermore, it is ill-conceived, with no apparent goal, and based on bombing Iran into submission, which is rarely, if ever, achievable. All it has achieved is senseless loss of life, which is further empowering a more hardline Iranian government, and destabilised the Gulf states.

He entered this war without informing any of America’s allies except Israel, highlighting his general disdain for international alliances and commitments. His diplomacy can be described as transactional, predicated on what he deems advantageous to the U.S., with the assumption that exercising military power, unchecked by rule of law and with disregard for economic consequence, leads to greater US glory.

 

‘The war contravenes internation law, and is anti-constitutional, undertaken without the permission of Congress’

 

His dismissive attitude to NATO governments, the majority of which have refused to join his illegal war is further destabilising historic relationships. This, in turn, has diminished the role and value of NATO, which is playing into the hands of both Russia and China.

When Trump II came to power, I speculated that this would lead to the end of the era of US domination, not immediately, but maybe in 5-years’ time.

China will avoid being directly involved in Iran. They are adept at the long game. For example, they knew they would be the primary target of Trump’s tariffs, and they used the time to develop new export markets lessening their reliance on the US. The same could be true of oil, as they are reputed to have up to 3 years of oil reserves in stock.

Russia has seen the value of their oil reserves increase, enabling them to persecute their war with Ukraine with renewed vigour. Also, the war in Iran is running down US weapon stocks, weapons that Ukraine have become reliant on.

In addition, the administration has permitted Indian refiners to temporarily buy Russian oil. Previously, Trump claimed India had agreed to stop buying this oil, which he said would “help END THE WAR in Ukraine” by cutting off a vital source of funds for Russia.

Perhaps realising the domestic unpopularity of his was with Iran, Trump is now looking to America’s long time foe, Cuba, imposing an oil blockade that has led to a total power blackout.

Trump told reporters at the White House: “I do believe I’ll be … having the honour of taking Cuba,” Trump added. “Whether I free it, take it – think I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth. They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

“I do believe I’ll be … having the honour of taking Cuba,”

 

By comparison, the UK is an ocean of sanity.

The traditional two-party structure where Labour and the Tories played pass the parcel with being in government is no more. The most recent poll shows that two has become five with Reform on 25%, Greens 19%, Conservatives 17%, Lab 17%, LibDems 14%.

However, in the 45-yrs from the ascent of Thatcherism to the election of Labour under Kier Starmer, the Tories were in-government for two-thirds of the time. Even during the spell under Labour between 1997-2010 we saw a watered-down continuation of neoliberalism which served to stabilise and deepen its impact. Margaret Thatcher herself recognised as much when she said her greatest achievement was New Labour. As a result, the architecture of liberalised finance, privatised infrastructure and deference to corporate power was not reversed. It was normalised.

The party, inspired by the political economy of Peter Mandelson, who embraced wealth and the wealthy meaning that access became influence; influence shaped direction.

Whilst the political arena looks more diverse, there is still a right-left polarisation.

On the right we have the Tories and Reform, the latter being more hard-right, a decaf version of Trump’s MAGA movement.

On the left we have the emergence of the Greens who have usurped the Lib Dems.

Labour are the odd-one-out, seemingly unsure of what they are. They promised change, but they have delivered continuity with a model that prioritises market confidence, investor reassurance and fiscal orthodoxy over democratic transformation.

 

‘Labour are the odd-one-out, seemingly unsure of what they are’

 

In effect, Labour have gone from being they party that challenged establishment power to one that defers to entrenched interests, reinforcing the very system they those left behind feel has failed them

Interestingly, both Reform and Greens are populists.

What is often overlooked is that there can be left-wing populists, E.G., Podemos in Spain and Syriza in Greece. Their focus is more towards socio-economic divides, opposing corporate or financial elites, and focusing on economic redistribution.

Whilst they are clearly ideologically opposed, they perform a similar systemic function, attracting voters who no longer believe the political mainstream represents them.

In summary, Trump provides a much clearer example of the hangover left by neoliberalism. However, things aren’t always what they seem, as, he and his policies are neoliberal but mixed with extreme nationalism.

As a result, his MAGA voters, many of whom live in the regions deindustrialised in the first wave of neoliberalism, the so-called “rust-belt”, will be left further disadvantaged and disappointed.

The focus on finance has been supplanted by tech and the tech barons.

‘MAGA voters, many of whom live in the regions deindustrialised in the first wave of neoliberalism, the so-called “rust-belt”, will be left further disadvantaged and disappointed’

 

In Trump, the US has a leader who continues to monetise his presidency, and who regards the democratic norms as a hindrance. Many commentators suggest that the economic downturn the war is likely to cause and the unpopularity of another foreign war will see him loose on the forthcoming mid-terms, to which I would say, that’s true if we assume they go ahead, or go ahead unhindered.

In the UK, both Reform and the Greens have materially changed politics, but not in the way the government thinks. It hasn’t lifted the lid on a nation that’s been waiting for a bidding war centred on xenophobic malice. Instead, Nigel Farage especially, has energised voters – his own, and the ones who loathe his complacent, by-numbers service of capital interests, his social scapegoating. These voters will stop at nothing to defeat his candidates and they’ll be flexible. If Labour even wants to be a part of the opposition to the hard right, it has to actually oppose it; but just as important, it has to stop wasting energy trying to cast itself as its only righteous foe.