Retail traders push deeper into US equities, and benefit from gold and silver’s climb amid Venezuela tensions

Capital.com’s latest client sentiment data points to a clear rotation underway: traders are trimming exposure to European and Asian equities while raising their long bias in the US.

Over the past week, retail traders have pushed deeper into US equities, with long positioning building across major indices. Sentiment in the Russell 2000 climbed to 78% long, entering extreme buy territory, the S&P 500 rose to a heavy 76% long from 71% at the start of last week, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also saw a notable increase in bullish positioning, moving into heavy long territory at 72%, up from 62% a week earlier.

Outside the US, price gains took traders by surprise causing some longs to take profit in the DAX and reducing majority buy sentiment to just 55% from 59%, with a larger percentage drop occurring in the FTSE 100 after it breached 10,000 as traders there dropped out of heavy buy territory to 59% from 65% prior. A similar story occurred In Asia, with a big unwind in long positioning in the Hang Seng falling to 69% long from extreme buy 85% last Monday, as long traders finally locked in gains following Friday’s surge.

Meanwhile, flows into precious metals accelerated sharply. Gold sentiment jumped back into extreme buy territory at 82% long, from 70% a week ago, while silver surged to 84% from 75%, as last week’s pullback drew in fresh longs and prompted short covering, though they were swift beneficiaries at the start of this week as geopolitical events gave both a boost. WTI crude remained firmly bid, holding at an extreme 88% long, underscoring continued bullish conviction in the energy market and shared to a large extent by CoT speculators who have been piling in over the past few months even as negative technical bias builds.

In FX, sentiment reflected a moderation in recent dollar strength. EUR/USD shifted from a majority short position (55% short last week) to a slight long bias at 54%, while GBP/USD edged higher to 54% long from 51%. Positioning in USD/JPY moved closer to neutral, easing to 53% long from 57%, as traders trimmed exposure after recent volatility.

“What we’re seeing is a clear divergence in trader behaviour,” said Monte Safieddine, Head of Market Research, MENA at Capital.com. “Retail traders are pressing into US equities, while taking profits in Europe and Asia. At the same time, last week’s sharp move off the highs in gold and silver shows that, despite the risk-on tone in equities, there’s still a strong desire to hedge against volatility, with the weekend geopolitical events in Venezuela proving them right and making them swift beneficiaries of the latest moves.”

Sentiment is gauged from over 750k active clients trading globally on Capital.com, w/w, as at 5am UTC, 5 January 2025

To access the full Weekly Sentiment Report (updated Mondays), go to: https://capital.com/weekly-sentiment-report-mena