Outlook 2026: Navigate new pathways – zeroing in on opportunities

“Infrastructure stands as a cornerstone of resilient portfolios. Driven by the energy transition and digitalisation, the asset class can offer long-term, inflation-protected cashflows and low correlation to traditional markets. With global policy support accelerating, infrastructure is no longer just supporting economies – it’s shaping tomorrow.”

Marta Perez

CIO Infrastructure

“Private credit continues to evolve as a key financing channel. Success in private credit increasingly depends on disciplined underwriting and identifying resilient segments of the market – such as European and Asia private credit, secondaries, and other areas where structural demand and attractive risk-adjusted returns remain intact.”

Sebastian Schroff

CIO Private Credit & Private Equity

As we move into 2026, private markets continue to drive long-term portfolio performance. Global alternative assets are expected to reach USD 30 trillion by 2029, up from USD 18 trillion in 2024, making private markets a mainstream part of diversified portfolios.³ The next phase of the development of private markets will be shaped by slower exits, evolving liquidity dynamics, broader investor participation and new investment opportunities.

We see five key trends driving markets in 2026:

1. Secondaries mature into a core allocation
   With limited options available to exit markets and a lagging in the payment of returns, investors are looking for other ways to realise profits and improve portfolios. In the current environment, secondaries trading of existing investment fund shares and continuation vehicles (that extend the holding period of assets) are evolving from emergency liquidity tools into core portfolio management instruments.

   Investors increasingly use secondaries to rebalance vintages, manage concentration risk, and gain access to seasoned portfolios. For general partners (GPs), continuation funds allow extended ownership of key assets and give liquidity to early investors. The secondaries market now plays a crucial role in adding flexibility to private markets. Private equity remains the most scalable and established part of the secondaries market. Looking ahead to 2026, secondaries, especially in private debt and infrastructure, present strong investment potential.

2. Diversification across strategies and regions
   Allocators are expanding beyond traditional buyout strategies to include infrastructure, private credit, trade finance and real assets. Each of these asset classes is expected to grow at a high single-digit pace through the decade. Geographical diversification is also accelerating as Asia captures a larger share of inflows, supported by stronger local markets and maturing regulation. Attractive investment opportunities are emerging in Asian private credit as traditional lenders withdraw and demand for tailored non-dilutive capital rises.

   Specialist funds in sectors such as climate technology, energy transition and digital infrastructure are gaining traction as investors seek targeted expertise and differentiated return drivers.

3. Managing volatility takes disciplined underwriting
   In uncertain markets, strict underwriting and thorough due diligence are essential to mitigate risk and capture opportunities. Outperformance depends on rigorous analysis, transparency, disciplined underwriting and alignment with long-term objectives – principles that should guide allocation decisions and remain core to our strategies.
4. Private wealth participation accelerates
   We see an acceleration in participation by individual investors as the asset class becomes more accessible thanks to semi-liquid fund structures and regulations like the European Long-Term Investment Fund (ELTIF) 2.0 in Europe. By the end of the decade, individuals may account for a quarter of private markets assets under management. This shift brings managers more long-term capital and new demands for liquidity, reporting and product innovation.
5. Macroeconomic and geopolitical realignment
   Reshoring, energy security and the regionalisation of production are shifting capital flows. By 2030, infrastructure and real asset strategies could double in size as private capital finances the energy transition, digital independence and logistics. Private markets are increasingly supporting companies as they grow – as traditional bank lending declines.

Infrastructure: energy and digital trends

Infrastructure remains a cornerstone of institutional portfolios, providing long-term contracted cashflows, inflation protection, low correlation to traditional asset classes and strong policy support globally. Europe, in particular, is set to capture a leading share of global growth as governments mobilise public and private capital to advance decarbonisation, energy security and competitiveness.

In 2026, two themes dominate:

• Energy transition. Huge demand for capital to fund projects may create more investment opportunities for private investors to step in. Strong policy support in Europe, and environmental, social and governance (ESG) targets in the private sector, continue to drive the energy transition. Energy infrastructure assets usually have long-term, inflation-indexed contracts, making them appealing in today’s market. Additionally, energy transition infrastructure has little correlation with traditional assets, helping bring diversification to portfolios.
• Digital infrastructure. Data centres, fibre networks and 5G connectivity form the backbone of Europe’s digital sovereignty, supported by national and EU funding initiatives, as well as the digitalisation megatrend, including the push to provide reliable, fast services in the cloud. We continue to see opportunities, both within equity and debt, going into 2026.

Energy transition and digital infrastructure are increasingly intertwined. The rise of decentralised renewable energy systems depends on smart grids and real-time data management, while the rapid expansion of data centres – key enablers of digitalisation – drives significant electricity demand, reinforcing the need for clean, resilient energy sources.

Private credit: attractive yields and diligent underwriting

Global private credit is projected to more than double to USD 4.5 trillion in assets under management by 2030, up from USD 2.1 trillion in 2024, driven by higher interest rates, investor demand and capital market shifts.⁴ North America is expected to remain dominant while Europe and Asia continue to expand their private credit markets.

Despite macro headwinds, direct lending remains compelling thanks to attractive yields and the critical role of disciplined underwriting. We expect its growth to continue as private credit further replaces banks in financing companies.

As investors diversify beyond direct lending, we see increasing interest in infrastructure debt, liquidity solutions such as credit secondaries and trade finance, offering differentiated returns and low correlation.

Impact investing and blended finance – which mobilise capital for underserved projects and ensure measurable, transparent and lasting societal and environmental outcomes – remain in focus for many investors.

Private equity: rebound in exits?

The slowdown in mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings has reduced exit opportunities and distributions to limited partners (LPs), shifting the focus to secondaries and continuation funds to address liquidity issues.

LPs increasingly seek lower fees and greater control over their investment decisions. Co-investments enable LPs to invest directly, offering enhanced transparency, influence and potential for higher returns – often with minimal fees and better IRR than traditional fund investments. In the current challenging environment, GPs offering co-investments can build stronger LP relationships and position themselves for market recovery.

We expect a progressive rebound in exits in the coming years, which will allow private equity fundraising to restart. This could be supported by further retail investor demand through evergreen or semi-liquid funds.

¹ Source: The Hindu, 4 March 2024
² Source: Reuters, 4 September 2025
³ Source: AllianzGI, Preqin (Private Markets in 2030 | Preqin)
⁴ Ibid.

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