Iran war triggers 276% rise in retail investor activity as oil surges and traders reprice war risk

Retailed traders have increased their investment activity by 276% in response to the escalating war in the Middle East, according to data from Capital.com.

Oil has now surged to become the platform’s second most-traded instrument in a single session, and gold volumes more than doubling overnight as safe-haven demand accelerates.

On Monday 2 March, Capital.com recorded a 49% rise in active traders compared to the Friday prior (27 Feb), with total trading volumes up 73% and the number of trades executed rising 82% in a single day. The moves were driven overwhelmingly by two instruments — oil, where traders rushed to reprice regional supply risk, and gold, which extended its role as the safe-haven of choice for retail investors navigating an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.

Oil: from sixth to second in a single session

The scale of the shift in oil is striking. The number of traders entering oil for the first time spiked 1,255% on Monday versus Friday — a figure that speaks to how decisively the conflict broke through to a new audience of retail traders previously unengaged with energy markets. Overall, the number of active oil traders on the platform rose 276% day-on-day, propelling oil from 6th–7th to 2nd place across all instruments on the platform.

Trading volumes in oil rose 649% over the same period, while sentiment shifted markedly bullish — rising from 51% long on Friday to 75% long on Monday. The data indicates that traders were actively reassessing their exposure to energy markets in light of potential supply disruption — a considered response to a changed risk environment.

Gold: safe-haven demand holds firm with volumes doubling overnight

Gold remained the most actively traded instrument on the platform throughout the week. Monday (2 Mar) saw gold volume rise 103% compared to Friday (27 Feb), with trades up 87% and the number of active traders up 61%. Long sentiment in gold also strengthened, rising from 58% on Friday to 66% on Monday — affirming a clear bullish tilt among retail traders seeking shelter from geopolitical uncertainty.

Commenting on the data, Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst, Capital.com, said:

“Precious metals, especially gold, are typically a perennial favourite of retail traders. They are almost always net-buyers of both commodities. However, extraordinary uncertainty regarding global geopolitics, trade and economic policy has only seen interest in them surge, with the crisis in the Middle East stoking that further.

The significant shift in activity has been in the energy complex, as traders reassess their exposure to the volatility caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The risk of meaningful supply disruptions in the region is driving considerable bullish positioning for crude, though some traders have begun to fade that move following the initial spike.”

What this week’s data illustrates is how traders are adjusting positions, reappraising exposure, and responding to new information amid rapidly changing market conditions.

Risk analyst Raj Abrol. CEO, Galytix said: “Fluctuating oil prices and disruption to shipping driven by conflict in the Middle East means managing risk is now a top priority for financial services organisations. However, far too many still lack the ability to accurately assess and respond to shifting risk profiles, something that can be done accurately and faster with AI. With uncertainty now the new normal, market intelligence data is an essential asset, and will help reassure investors and risk managers in complex times.”

Financial expert Kenny MacAulay, CEO of Acting Office, a software platform for accounting practices added:  “Increased geopolitical conflict will cause a major headache for businesses, especially those organisations dependant on international supply chains. Responding to shifting levies also adds a layer of compliance complexity, meaning companies need to keep a closer eye on margins and risk assessments for additional charges in the future. The reality is that businesses will struggle to respond to this uncertainty without the right software in place, to manage risk, adapt to shifting charges and even stay afloat in extremely challenging times.”