I’m So Bored With the USA: Chinese Takeaway 

 

 

“Disoriented you enter in
Unleashing scent of wild jasmine” 

 

 

Today we have a largely US-centric piece as we consider the increasing chaos of Trumpism, as the country slides slowly towards authoritarianism. 

There is the pose as the prince of peace, firstly with Gaza, although the ceasefire seems somewhat unstable.  

 

In Ukraine, rumour has it that the cost of stopping the fighting is stopping the frontline where it is. This, very clearly is a reward for Putin’s illegal invasion, and shows how the US influence is either waning or changing. The reality is simple, Russia is now in China’s orbit, and therefore feels safe from US interference, and Putin has to get a result, as Russia’s casualties are estimated to exceed 1m. Something we covered in “Appeasement.” 

What this masks is the escalating authoritarianism of Trump’s rule back home, with some, serious analysts going so far as to suggest that he seems intent on provoking a second American civil war. 

Part of this is his  deployment of US troops on the streets of America’s cities. We covered in “God Only Knows”, Trump’s initial deployment of the National Guard to LA, and then motivated by his concern over crime, to Washington DC, Chicago, Portland and Memphis.  

All this was justified by the claim that these cities were “overrun” by violence and local police needed his help. Whereas, the data shows that most of the cities targeted have lower rates of violent crime than other large cities that have remained untouched; Of the 10 major US cities with the biggest crime problems, Trump has hit Memphis. 

 

‘Russia is now in China’s orbit, and therefore feels safe from US interference’

 

Portland, Oregon, was describe by him as a “burning hellhole”, “You see fires all over the place. You see fights, and I mean just violence. It’s just so crazy.” The people of Portland were bemused, it was far from the truth 

All of this begs the question; why? 

With Portland, it has been suggested that Trump had been watching Fox News, confusing footage from the riots of 2020 with today. 

The more obvious, and believable explanation is that these are Democrat-run cities in Democrat-led states. This becomes more cogent when you consider that Cleveland, Ohio and Kansas City, Missouri have higher rates of violent crime but are under Republican governors, and have been left alone. 

This is intimidation, perhaps designed to provoke violence, maybe riots or an attack on the military that can be instantly spun, as an act of leftist terrorism that merits a further crackdown, seizure of emergency powers or suspension of liberties. Little different to the assassination of Charlie Kirk. 

 

‘This is intimidation, perhaps designed to provoke violence’

 

Then there is next year’s midterm elections which are a crucial for Trump, as, should the Republicans lose the House of Representatives this would seriously restrict Trump’s power. By normalising the presence of troops on the streets, they then could scare away minorities and others who might vote for the Democrats, or for the battle after polling day, to enforce an attempt by the White House to void results that don’t go their way. This might sound far-fetched but it happened in January 2021, and this time the armed forces would be on hand to ensure Trump gets his way. 

Which bring us to the question of; would the military allow itself be used as a partisan political instrument? 

The White House is preparing the ground for this. Last month, Trump and Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war, gathered US admirals and generals, gathered from across the globe together, with the instruction that they now faced an “enemy from within”, that their job was to deal with “civil disturbances” and that they should regard America’s “dangerous cities as training grounds”.  

Trump is also weaponizing the justice system to punish his critics, E.G., issuing an  indictment against his former national security adviser John Bolton. 

The chief adviser of the Justice Department called the Democratic party a “domestic extremist organisation” even before the Kirk killing. And, not forgetting the masked ICE snatch squads arresting all and sundry.  

The justice system is a core, constitutive element of democracy. Trump has stacked the supreme court in his favour, pardoned the January 6 rioters who assaulted and killed officials, and continues to ignore any rulings that restrain his actions, for nothing other than his own political ends. The end goal appears to be  rule by law, effectively weaponising the law itself. 

Aside from John Bolton, Trump is targeting Letitia James, the New York attorney general who successfully sued him Mr Trump for fraud, and the former FBI director James Comey, under whose watch the bureau investigated Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, and the Democratic senator Adam Schiff. 

In a social media post apparently published unintentionally, he urged Pam Bondi, the attorney general:  “They impeached me twice, and indicted me (5 times!), OVER NOTHING. JUSTICE MUST BE SERVED, NOW!!! 

In general, the government is trying to shutdown or eliminate “Democrat agencies”, better expressed as any entity that might act as a restraint on Trump. Included in this, are institutions from the universities to public broadcasting, that might do the same. Then there is the imposition of ideological orthodoxy on the entire federal bureaucracy; E.G., the FBI’s fired an employee who had displayed the pride flag. 

Much of this is exactly the methods Hitler used to take Germany from a democracy to a totalitarian dictatorship, all perfectly legal. 

Trump campaigned on his own personal vindictiveness, selling it as political righteousness, saying: “I am your retribution”. A recent survey showed the success of this, with a third of Republicans supporting the idea that American citizens who oppose the president should be deported. 

 

‘Trump campaigned on his own personal vindictiveness, selling it as political righteousness, saying: “I am your retribution”’

 

This weekends “No Kings” Marches were described as a threat to order. This is a much used dictatorial concept, one of invoking crisis to distract from or justify the erasure of democratic safeguards. Just as Hitler did after the Reichstag fire in 1933 

Ironically, if anything can check Trump it could be his tariffs which see him “”Hoist with his own petard.” 

I think, and certainly hope, that, in China, he meets a bigger bully. In boxing terms, Trump US are the flabby old-champ, for who, against a nimbler, better prepared, and younger opponent will get their comeuppance.  

After sparring in the opening rounds, China, last weak unleashed some body blows by expanding global export controls on rare-earth minerals and magnets, over which it exercises a near monopoly. 

Aside from being essential components in the manufacture of most electronic devices, including phones and cars, they are used in cruise missiles, combat jets, nuclear submarines, drones and other modern weapons systems. China’s new rules will prohibit their use for any military purpose.  

The knock-on here is that this embargo, if enforced, could potentially compromises western arms supplies to Ukraine’s defences against Russia, Beijing’s ally. 

The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that “China [with unlimited access to rare minerals] is rapidly scaling up its munitions manufacturing capacity and acquiring advanced weapons platforms at a rate estimated to be five to six times faster than that of the US.” 

China also intends to control use of these materials by overseas-based manufacturers and supply chains, just as the US has done since 1959. Beijing is, as Washington before, weaponising trade for political purposes.  

 

‘Trump, like a punch drunk fighter, has no plan, whereas China very clearly do’

 

Trump, like a punch drunk fighter, has no plan, whereas China very clearly do, and are quite prepared to enter into a full-blown trade war, they are very clearly going on the offensive. 

In terms of the tariff fight, James Palmer in Foreign Policy, noted: “Since Trump launched the trade war this year, Chinese exporters have had considerable success finding new markets. Last month, China’s year-over-year exports to the US fell by 27%, but exports as a whole were still up by 8.3%.” 

Whereas, Trump’s tariffs have caused US farmers to lose their crucial China soya bean market to Brazilian producers. And, with Christmas approaching, there is the problem that the majority of toys and up to 90% of Christmas goods sold in the US are made in China. 

In part, China is being opportunistic, realising they have a weak opponent, whose America First policies are alienating old and new friends alike, creating a vacuum it can fill. US global influence and leverage is plummeting. Trump has disrupted traditional alliances in Europe and Asia, and has shown weakness in his dealing with both Russia and Israel. With the virtual elimination of US foreign aid which provided influence, and their contempt for the UN and the international rules-based order, the US has opened the door for a new world order. 

‘the majority of toys and up to 90% of Christmas goods sold in the US are made in China’

 

Thanks to Trump, the US resembles a faded champion, in a fight that looks increasingly unequal with only one potential outcome. 

For the UK, this appears to be lose-lose situation, Beijing scorns us whilst the US just patronise us, Brexit, and our unpleasant negotiating stance, leave us adrift of Europe, alone and potentially collateral damage   

Back in the UK we seem to be stumbling along. 

The prince Andrew saga continues to prove that there is one rule for the royals and one for everyone else. Mealy-mouthed punishments, such as taking away unearned titles are nowhere near enough. Anyone else would be in court, he should be no different. 

But, of course, we aren’t all equal as, along with the parasites, business does all it can to avoid paying taxes.  

The gambling industry, which does so much to promote misery and financial struggles on many, is the latest to say it can’t, more accurately won’t pay, with Betfred threatening to close all 1,287 of its high street betting shops if chancellor Reeves raises taxes on the gambling industry in next month’s budget. The tax could be worth up to £3.2bn, a considerable contribution towards the potential £30bn shortfall in the public finances. 

Fred Done, the billionaire chair who co-founded Betfred with his brother in 1967, told the BBC: “If [the tax rate] went up to anywhere like 40%, or even 35%, there is no profit in the business. We would have to close it down. I’m talking job losses. We’re talking probably 7,500.”   

Last week Betfred’s rival, William Hill, said it could close up to 200 betting shops, with up to 1,500 jobs potentially affected. Stella David, the chief executive of Entain, the FTSE 100 owner of Ladbrokes and Coral, has also said higher gambling taxes could lead to shop closures and investment being diverted to other countries. 

It will be revealing to see whether Messrs Starmer and Reeves are made of straw or substance. 

If the preposterous Steve “Build Baby Build!”Reed, the new housing secretary, is anything to go by it will be straw!! 

By way of background, Labour pledged to build 1.5m new homes by the end of this parliament. They won’t, and they are admitting as much. 

In London, where the government wants 88,000 homes finished before January, to date this year we have started just 3,248 new units. The figure comes from the consultancy Molior, which says that one in every six major housing projects is frozen: “schemes are halted, with the gates padlocked”.  

Reed, together with Mayor Khan are in melt-down, and considering desperate measures, such as changing the rules governing fast-track planning applications, which include 35% of affordable homes in any new development. The government is thinking of reducing that to 20%. 

 

‘From “drill baby drill” to “build baby build”, the only thing that worries me more than the idiots saying it, is the idiots believing and voting for it’

 

The second measure would be to increase the amount of government subsidy available for building affordable units, so companies can be funded for as many as half of the cheaper homes they build. 

The third would be to give councils the option not to charge a tax known as the community infrastructure levy, which forces builders to pay for local services such as roads and GP surgeries. 

These measures are said to be part of plans that were part of extensive discussions with senior executives at Barratt, Vistry and Berkeley – among other major housebuilders. This privileged access appears to have been reserved almost exclusively for the property industry, with representatives of housing associations invited in further down the road while groups representing ordinary tenants, and even London councils, do not seem to have been involved at all. 

From “drill baby drill” to “build baby build”, the only thing that worries me more than the idiots saying it, is the idiots believing and voting for it. 

There’s hope for me yet!!  

 

“And we the people, Who reason why
Forever change, As time goes by” 

 

‘This week we take a look at the punch-drunk old champion that is the US under Trump.

Leaving aside his attempts at being the prince of peace overseas, domestically he is the prince of darkness, seemingly intent on reducing the US to a totalitarian dictatorship.

Whilst not the most appealing solution, if it takes an all-out trade war with China to open the eyes of the US electorate, it’s a price worth paying.

Either way, 2026 will see the beginning of a nasty recession. The only difference being, that for many in the US and UK, they have been stuck in one since 2008.

Despite the bragging of VP Vance, the US has a very weak hand to play against China in trade, and increasingly in military terms, too.

Dear old blighty is stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea, without a European lifeboat to jump aboard. Oh well, we made our own bed….

Back home, its echoes of “No One Wants to Pay”, with the betting industry, that purveyor of misery, to make threats over proposed tax changes.

In early signs the government is tugging their forelock to business, the major housebuilders are being allowed to run riot, in the hope we build some houses.

As for the royals, don’t get me started…..

Lyrically, we celebrate China, spy’s and all. We open with Siouxsie and the Banshees “Hong Kong Garden” and close with “China Crisis” and “Black Man Ray.”

Enjoy Andrew’s increasing discomfort! Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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