Jan
2025
Equities Update: Meta, WHSmith, Wizz, BT Fibre, Shell..
DIY Investor
30 January 2025
Could DeepSeek spark an AI spending rethink for Meta?
Sam North, analyst at investment platform eToro, says: “Social media giant Meta is facing steep expectations as it prepares to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results on Wednesday night. Shares in the Facebook and Instagram parent company have climbed an impressive 45% in the last six months, with much of the positive sentiment driven by Meta’s heavy investment in AI – although the emergence of China’s DeepSeek may be changing the playing field.
“After Meta’s belt-tightening phase in 2023, this earnings report should cap what has been a markedly different picture in 2024, with significant growth in headcount, revenue, as well as costs. Investors will be keeping a close eye on those costs, as well as the company’s capital expenditures. It’s this last area that may be most affected by DeepSeek’s new AI model. Meta’s previous guidance pointed to ‘significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth’ for 2025, but – if reports are to be believed – the new open-source DeepSeek reasoning model costs significantly less to train than leading US-developed AI models, while being, in some ways, more effective.
“We saw shockwaves reverberate through the tech industry on Monday. Now, with a few days to digest DeepSeek’s announcement, it will be fascinating to discover how much credence Mark Zuckerberg gives to this potential avenue for lower-cost LLMs, especially with the waters muddied by today’s claims from OpenAI that their data may have been used without authorisation to train DeepSeek’s models. Meta’s plans to roll out smaller versions of Llama 4 in the near future are unlikely to be derailed by DeepSeek’s R1, but investors will look for whether there are any changes in the longer-term roadmap for Meta’s CapEx plans as a consequence.”
End of an era? WHSmith shifts focus to travel as high street declines
Mark Crouch, market analyst at investment platform eToro, says: “WH Smith’s latest trading update paints a familiar picture for investors. The retailer’s travel business reported growth across all travel divisions, while Smith’s high street stores are struggling to keep pace. With many of us popping into Smith’s for anything from a sandwich to suntan lotion on our travels, it’s once again the high street stores that customers are turning away from. The accelerating dominance of online retailers has forced high street shops to adapt or face extinction, something that WHSmith arguably saw this coming, having invested heavily in its travel division in recent years, with resounding success.
“While news of the potential sale of its high street business may not have come as a surprise to investors, it would mark the end of an era, as WHSmith’s joins the growing list of big retail names leaving the UK high street. However, given that the travel stores currently represent three-quarters of WHSmith’s revenue and are growing rapidly, investors are likely to feel more confident about the future of the company in this sector. For WHSmith’s high street presence, however, the writing seems to be on the wall.”
BT fibre growth offsets sluggish phone market
Adam Vettese, market analyst at investment platform eToro, says: “Diversified revenue streams have kept BT steady after strong demand for its fibre offering, offsetting weak performance abroad and in the mobile space.
“Despite a wave of cost-cutting measures and effectively an improvement on the bottom line, shares are down this morning with investors perhaps more concerned with overall revenue slipping which could have raised concerns about the capacity for growth going forward.
“Shares have been on a charge over the last year up the best part of 40%. We could now be seeing some profit taking come into play if investors feel some of the momentum is dissipating. That being said the price is still a further 40% away from where it traded in 2022.”
“Drill Maybe Drill”: Shell opts for buybacks amid weaker demand
Mark Crouch, market analyst at investment platform eToro, says: “After revising down their LNG production outlook earlier this month, Shell announced this morning that lower refining margins and lower demand has caused profits to drop by half in Q4 from the same period a year ago, as the gravy train of profits earned by the company over the last couple of years has slowed dramatically.
“Despite the lacklustre performance from fossil fuels, Shell recently announced plans to scale back investment in renewable energy projects, more or less indicating they see fossil fuels production as the long-term future of the company. Although this move is likely to attract criticism, it seems much more about preserving profitability than it does about preserving a moral stance.
“Currently however, oil companies remain under pressure as profits amongst the majors have taken a significant hit in 2024. And with Donald Trump calling for “drill baby drill”, oil majors like Shell currently have very little incentive to dance to the President’s tune. Shell instead is opting to increase share buybacks, rather than invest in new drilling projects. So until oil prices increase or more incentives are on offer, perhaps “drill maybe drill” would be more accurate for the time being.”
Hard landing for Wizz as budget carrier swings to loss
Adam Vettese, market analyst at investment platform eToro, says: “It’s not a huge surprise Wizz has had to cut its forecast once again this morning as the firm is beset with issues, particularly due to grounded planes as a result of problems with the Pratt Whitney engines. The cost of keeping these planes on the ground is stacking up on top of the fact that geopolitical conflict has restricted many of its routes. There may now be a reprieve for flights to Tel Aviv going forward but Eastern Europe which is Wizz’s main stomping ground remains tricky.
“Shares have almost halved since the middle of last year which may tempt some investors out there hunting for a bargain, although given this engine issue may not be fixed for another year or two, the risk is it might be a long wait for shares to recover, if they don’t fall further in the mean time.”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.