The Times They Are A-Changin; Everyone Keeps Picking On Me! 

 

 

“Don’t waste your words
I don’t need anything from you” 

 

 

Justice was done; Belgium whacked the USA 4-1. 

 

There are two things here that shouldn’t be a surprise. 

America aren’t very good at football. The mere fact that can’t get the sport’s name correct tells you everything. 

Secondly, whilst the President intervening and requesting special treatment is clearly unacceptable, it isn’t surprising. 

Trump and his courtiers are exceptional; their power and wealth allows them to do what they want, how they, when they want.  

It isn’t a discussion point, its fact and its completely wrong. At a stroke it sums up inequality; the few have amassed such wealth that they to buy influence, which, in-turn enables them to become the law. They aren’t above it, they are it!  

Which brings me to our own poundshop Trump, Nigel Farage. The situation is the same, donors buying influence, the rules not applying to them, etc.. The only difference is the quantum, the court of king Donald plays with real money. 

 

‘our own poundshop Trump, Nigel Farage’

 

Farage has decided to let the electorate of Clacton decide his fate, and is blaming the establishment: “It seems to me that the establishment have now decided that they can’t beat us fairly, so they’ve chosen to use foul means.” 

It will be a “people versus the establishment” byelection, he says. “Now I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment byelection. It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire Establishment to frankly tell them where to go, and that is why I will be putting my name forward to stand in this byelection.” 

Regarding the donations scandal that led him to this decision, he blamed “Labour’s restrictions on donations are what you would get ‘in communist country.” 

Labour “keep changing the rules again and again just to stop Reform”, a reference to the restrictions on donations from people living abroad, concluding that it’s “like living in a communist country”. 

So far as I can see, if you aren’t living in a country you have no right to influence their politics! 

This is Farage’s gamble, attempting to regain control of the narrative by appealing to the people. 

Typically, his speech was littered with half-truths… 

 

‘a “people versus the establishment” byelection’

 

He hasn’t broken the law, he is being investigated for potentially breaking parliamentary rules. 

The business with his daughters house is a red-herring, I read there are pictures of him in-front of the house on social media. 

The reality is that his finances appear opaque, based on the largesse of uber-wealthy people who do little for nothing. 

There is the £5m gift he received from a cryptocurrency billionaire, which we have conflicting explanations for. Farage, whilst a known supporter of crypto, strongly objected to the BoE proposed “Britcoin”. I wonder why? 

The straw that broke the camels’ bask was revelation of the benefits he has received from George Cottrell, a man with a colourful past, having been jailed for eight months in the US in 2017 after pleading guilty to a charge of wire fraud after admitting attempting to defraud criminals on the dark web by masquerading as a money launderer. 

Farage claimed it was an “establishment hit job”, and went onto say: “I have done no wrongdoing, followed the rules and I am now considering legal action against the Sunday Times.” 

This is straight out of the Trump playbook; blame the establishment, threaten legal action. 

 

‘straight out of the Trump playbook; blame the establishment, threaten legal action’

 

The resignation and by-election are little more than a cheap stunt. He is trying to argue that voters, not the “establishment”, should judge him over these gifts. However, whilst a byelection decides who voters wish to represent them, it doesn’t judge a person’s compliance with parliamentary rules regarding donations and benefits. 

Farage is rolling the dice. 

He is likely to be-elected as the opposition parties are refusing to give him victors credibility by not standing. But, the investigation will not go away. 

I think there is a bigger picture, a chance to restore the party with the electorate. 

Support has peaked: YouGov survey dated 5-6 July 2026 shows them on 25%, with Conservatives 21% and Labour 20%. In September 2025, BMG showed Reform polling at 35%. This is a drop of 10-points, a third less support, in less than a year. 

If it is mud being thrown its sticking. 

All of which raises the question, if Farage decides this is all too much, what happens to Reform? 

Farage became leader of the party in June 2024, just prior to the general election.  Before this return, they were polling at 9-11%, they are a one-man |(remember, this is Reform, no DEI concessions) party. 

 

‘if Farage decides this is all too much, what happens to Reform?’

 

It is an overstatement to say their support would simply melt away, their will always be anti-establishment, racist hardcore whose rage know no bounds. What Farage represented was the glue that held it all together. Without Farage, their anger loses focus, becoming less electorally coherent. He is also their main source of fundraising. 

 Reform, as with UKIP, is Farage’s party, a one man band with no succession planning. If anything, he seems to regard potential successors as a threat.  

Politically, he is the one who brings together the unlikely electoral coalition of “left behind” and those who previously considered themselves respectable Tories. Without him, the party might face a stark choice; tack further right to overcome Restore, or try to become the dominant party of a more mainstream right.  

Within this, there is the likelihood of an unsavoury battle between Tory defectors fighting for the political lives and longer-term Reform members.  

The ultimate winners are likely to be the two main parties; Badenoch would gain the lion’s share of Reform’s new supporters and most of its halfway competent MPs defected from her side. 

For Labour it present some challenges. They would have to make a case for re-election on merit, rather than just for voting Labour to keep Reform out.  

There might also be push-back from some Labour MPs on the subject of electoral reform. If they no longer fear Reform getting more than 30% of the vote, might they chose to stick with first-past-the-post? 

There are so-many what if’s.  

 

‘It’s polices are both authoritarian and nationalistic’

 

Farage might be able to shrug this off, as he has done previously, or, he could leave frontline politics temporarily – as he has done more than once before – only to return when the time is right. 

What Farage’s contempt for the rules does highlight is that Reform isn’t just a right-wing protest party. It’s polices are both authoritarian and nationalistic. Human-rights would be subservient to what they see as “the rights of law-abiding people”; claiming asylum would be all but impossible with migrant workers suffering higher taxes; scrapping equalities safeguards; schools would be forced to teach a “patriotic curriculum”; and climate obligations would be abandoned in favour of fossil-fuels.  

Brexit was supposed to be about “taking back control”. If so, Burnhamism could offer this to those left behind. Reform, offers only nationalistic control via a country at war with itself, Burnham offers a country that works for all.  

 

‘Burnham plans to return us to our past’

 

In many ways, Burnham plans to return us to our past: “We need to safeguard sovereign manufacturing and production capability across the country in critical sectors like steel, defence, energy, food and farming, rather than just being prepared to let it go, as we have sadly done in the past.” 

But this isn’t the past of neoliberalism Tories and their New Labour admirers and their blessed financial services, Burnham envisages new 21st-century factories, universities that support these new industries, in a country where every region can “set clear and credible industrial ambitions.” 

 

“I’m yours, you’re mine
Gimme more of that Jailbird pie”

 

This was a total rewrite of what I planned.

If Farage is attempting to take control of the narrative it’s a very big gamble.

With the parties boycotting the by-election, it has zero credibility. And, even when he wins the threat of losing with the standards committee is undiminished.

If there is a second byelection, they will be lining-up to finish him off.

Is he done? Probably.

As we have said before when all is said and done the majority of Brits don’t like people like him.

Lyrically, the two songs represent the two-sides of the argument. For some he is the resurrection, for others, he belongs in jail.

We start with I Am the Resurrection” by The Stone Roses and end with “Jailbird” by Primal Scream.

I am enjoying this immensely

Philip 

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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