The Nimble Trader – Weekly Markets Report for DIY Investor
Friday the 6th December 2019.
FROM TODAY’S COMMENTARY: ‘…..down on the week but up today, with the NIMBLE BULL/BEAR indicator sharply down from 8 to 4’
I FIND IT HELPS ME TO BREAK THE UK MARKET DOWN INTO THREE TIME FRAMES (SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG) AND TO THEN ESTABLISH HOW BULLISH/BEARISH I AM IN EACH TIME FRAME AND ALSO TO PROVIDE A COMBINED READING
0 1 2 3 (4) 5 6 7 8 9
I’M 100% BEARISH IN THE ONE MONTH TIME FRAME, 66% BEARISH IN THE THREE MONTH AND 100% BULLISH IN THE ONE YEAR. THE COMBINED READING IS A NEUTRAL 4.
This market review is provided on the strict understanding that it is not personal financial advice to you in any way shape or form. It is my personal view of the market and any trades I’ve taken, nothing more nothing less. Please don’t base any of your trading or investing decisions on what I do or don’t think, as I may well be wrong. Always have your own view and make your own decisions and if in any doubt contact a suitably qualified financial advisor.
The FTSE All-Share Index (which I think is the best guide to the UK market) is down on the week but up today, with the NIMBLE BULL/BEAR indicator sharply down from 8 to 4. Let’s look at the stats and the charts.
The ten day moving average is light green, the twenty day moving average is yellow, the red lines are resistance, the green ones support. On the three month chart he red line is a thirty day moving average and the purple a fifty day, on the one year chart the blue line is a one hundred day, the green a two hundred day.
ONE MONTH TIMEFRAME: OUTLOOK 100% BEARISH
The weekly stats are the index is down 43.52 points to 4023.2 a fall of 1.07%. In weekly terms, the levels to watch for a breakout are around 4000 and around 4085. Quite a big down week, but well off the lows.
The stats are: today the index is up 53.37 points to 4023.2 a rise of 1.34%. Down sharply Monday and Tuesday, then flat and up with a bump today.
One of the things I think with charts is that it’s vital to look at them from different angles and in different time frames.
Viewed like this, we can clearly see the present baby BULL run is going up and down in a series of steps. Last week we were on step four, this week back down to just on step three. Going into next week 4010 needs to hold.
THREE MONTH TIMEFRAME: 66% BEARISH
The index is just below its 30 and 50 day moving averages, but they are still BULLISH as they have yet to invert.
ONE YEAR TIME FRAME: 100% BULLISH
Generally speaking, the world tends to trail around behind the US.
My view is that the S&P 500 is the best way to gauge the US market.
For the S&P 500 I’m 100% BULLISH in the one month time frame, 100% BULLISH in the three month and 100% BULLISH in the one year. The combined reading is a totally BULLISH 9. (Worth saying these figures are based on Thursday’s close).
Today at the time of writing, the US market is strongly up at 3149 and within a whisker of yet another all time high.
Last weeks greed gave way to fear on Monday and early Tuesday as the Trumpster got on his Tweet machine talking about the possible extended timeline of the trade ‘negotiations’ with China and perhaps as a response to the attempt to impeach him?
But as you see, the doom and gloom didn’t last and the market is once again powering upwards.
Obviously, markets are very effected by political decisions and utterances, they always have been and they always will be. But I’ve never known such a welter of conflicting announcements, I’m beginning to wonder if the Trump administration is gaming the market.
Markets have a natural ebb and flow to them anyway, but it might be helpful if these weren’t for ever being exacerbated by contradictory announcements from the White House.
This is where the money was getting made and lost in the world this last week. Mainly getting lost
It’s worth saying that these are fund sectors and that the money flows both in and out, as well as the performance of the underlying, determine the results.
NIMBLE TRADES UPDATE:
None of my recent purchases are causing me sleepless nights right now (but last night’s power cut and a fire engine with its lights flashing outside my place at 3am did) and some are doing exactly as I hoped they would. This one however did cause me a mini panic in mid November.
Ramsdens Holdings PLC (RFX) which I bought into on the 15th of October at 197 including costs got away to a great start and was just about to break out to new all time highs at around 210 when it got caught up in the contagion about unsecured short term loans that effected another pawnbroker.
As you see, over two days in mid November the price fell off a cliff, before the directors issued a statement saying that they did not offer the same type of loans that were distressing the FCA and after that, and also after a good report a few days later, the price recovered and has now broken out to that all time high, as I write its at 218. So after a monster wobble all appears to have come good.
This one fell 12% in two days and at times like this its never an easy call knowing whether to hold or whether to fold. Had I taken this trade purely on the technicals I’d have folded, but as I’d taken it largely on fundamentals and as far as I could see these hadn’t changed, I kept my nerve and held.
With hindsight that was the right call, but luck played a part believe me. One more big down day and I’d have cut and run.
It makes me realise that whilst research is hugely important, its not the only factor in play, ‘things’ both good and bad can simply come out of nowhere. We buy whatever it is, hand over our money and sit back for the ride. No matter how clever we think we are, we’re not doing the driving, as private investors we’re the passenger.
FINALLY FOR THIS WEEK:
The election campaign drags on, with just under a week to go. I don’t know about you, but I’ve switched my head off and shut down, I’ve had enough of listening to the cretins. I’ve made up my mind who I’m going to reluctantly vote for, so I don’t need to hear any more of the clap trap from any of them. Has public trust in the political class ever been as low as it is now?
Mind you, purely from an entertainment point of view isn’t it a crying shame that Labour have airbrushed Diane Abbott out of the campaign and what the hell has happened to the Boris Johnson of old?
Has he been watching videos of the ‘Maybot’ out campaigning at the last election and decided to emulate her and become boring, wooden and robotic? A few really good cock-ups from both of them would at least have livened things up a bit.
Politicians YUK. I’m not enthused about any of them and don’t trust any of them further than I could throw them. A few weeks ago I got to thinking, purely from an investment point of view who should I wish to win?
It seems to me that a Labour party that is slightly to the left of Stalin is unlikely to be good for a capitalist economy like ours and that the Lib Dems aren’t fit to even be in charge of themselves let alone anything else.
So with no great enthusiasm, I suppose I want the Conservative party to win by a clear majority simply because getting Brexit done at long last will end the uncertainty and getting rid of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit will surely be best for my money, my business and my investments?
I’ve just checked the odds at the bookies Paddy Power, as of this Friday afternoon the odds being offered on a Conservative majority are 11/4 on (last week 5/2 on) and on a Labour majority 25/1 (last week 20/1). The odds offered on a hung Parliament are 12/5 (last week 9/4 )
Hum, the odds on a hung Parliament are not to my liking, can you imagine another few years like the last two. YUK.
I just wish it was December the 13th and the circus was over. Mind you we should always be careful about what we wish for.
- Please do check out our website https://thenimbletrader.co.uk if you’ve not yet joined us and are interested in finding out what we offer.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.