The Nimble Trader – Weekly Markets Report for DIY Investor
TNT WEEKLY REPORT for DIY INVESTOR
Friday the 8th November 2019.
FROM TODAY’S COMMENTARY: ‘the Nimble BULL/BEAR index is right on the top stop at 9, which indicates maximum optimism. And for optimism read greed. There is a lot more greed than fear out there right now’
I FIND IT HELPS ME TO BREAK THE UK MARKET DOWN INTO THREE TIME FRAMES (SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG) AND TO THEN ESTABLISH HOW BULLISH/BEARISH I AM IN EACH TIME FRAME AND ALSO TO PROVIDE A COMBINED READING
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 (9)
I’M 100% BULLISH IN THE ONE MONTH TIME FRAME, 100% BULLISH IN THE THREE MONTH AND 100% BULLISH IN THE ONE YEAR. THE COMBINED READING IS A VERY BULLISH 9.
THE NIMBLE BULL/BEAR INDEX IS RIGHT ON THE TOP STOP OF 9, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM OPTIMISM. AND FOR OPTIMISM READ GREED. THERE IS A LOT MORE GREED THAN FEAR OUT THERE RIGHT NOW.
This market review is provided on the strict understanding that it is not personal financial advice to you in any way shape or form. It is my personal view of the market nothing more nothing less. Please don’t base any of your trading or investing decisions on what I do or don’t think, as I may well be wrong. Always have your own view and make your own decisions and if in any doubt contact a suitably qualified financial advisor.
The FTSE All-Share Index (which I think is the best guide to the UK market) is down quite sharply today, but nicely on the week. Let’s look at the stats and the charts.
The ten day moving average is light green, the twenty day moving average is yellow, the red lines are resistance, the green ones support. On the three month chart he red line is a thirty day moving average and the purple a fifty day, on the one year chart the blue line is a one hundred day, the green a two hundred day.
ONE MONTH TIMEFRAME: OUTLOOK 100% BULLISH
The weekly stats are the index is up 32.92 points to 4055.7 a rise of 0.82%. In weekly terms, the levels to watch for a breakout are around 4000 and around 4085.
The stats are: today the index is down 23.17 points to 4055.7 a fall of 0.57%.
One of the things I think with charts is that it’s vital to look at them from different angles and in different time frames.
Viewed like this, we can clearly see the present little BULL run is going up in a series of steps.
I said last week, ‘Right now I have my doubts about the reliability of price action and indicators because of the volatility we’re seeing. But taking this chart simply at face value, I’d say the prognosis was BULLISH.’ And so it was, we romped up step three and are currently in step four by the skin of our teeth’.
To state the obvious, we need an up-day on Monday to maintain the upward momentum.
THREE MONTH TIMEFRAME: 100% BULLISH
ONE YEAR TIME FRAME: 100% BULLISH
Generally speaking, the world tends to trail around behind the US. My view is that the S&P 500 is the best way to gauge the US market. For the S&P 500 I’m 100% BULLISH in the one month time frame, 100% BULLISH in the three month and 100% BULLISH in the one year. The combined reading is a totally BULLISH 9. (Worth saying these figures are based on Thursday’s close, today at the time of writing the US market is up a fraction today at 3086. Since breaking out to a new all time high a couple of weeks ago, the index has gone up with the rocket and is now a long way above it’s moving averages.
There is all together too much greed and not enough fear over there right now.
This latest little BULL run now looks overextended and unstable to my eyes, at the least it could do with calming down and going sideways. Whether it will or not is another matter.
This is where the money was getting made and lost in the world this last week, generally speaking it was the riskier more volatile sectors that did best, with the ultra safe index linked gilts doing worst.
Risk was on last week, as for the second week running greed vanquished fear all over the place.
It’s worth saying that these are fund sectors and that the money flows both in and out, as well as the performance of the underlying, determine the results.
NIMBLE TRADES UPDATE:
Compass Group is a long time hold of mine, I’m in at around 1765, the price is currently in a sideways channel between 1920 and 2120 and tonight is exactly at the halfway point of 2022. So a good result so far with figures due in ten days.
I bought into Polypipe Group a couple of weeks ago because I liked the fundamentals and it broke out to new highs, in at 462 including costs. Since then its largely gone sideways and tonight is slightly up at 467.
FINALLY FOR THIS WEEK:
I have no time whatsoever for politicians, having met a few of them in my time, I hold them all in utter contempt, they are however a necessary evil in that someone has to run the country. The choice is either a dictator or elected politicians, so on balance I suppose electing the cretins is better than having one seize power with the aid of the army.
So we are where we are and the election is coming and like I said it is better than a military coup.
So I got to thinking, purely from an investment point of view who should I wish to win?
It seems to me that if Labour either on their own or in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP do so it will be a financial nightmare. The Brexit Party or UKIP or the Green Party are surely not going to win, if by some freak set of circumstances they do that will also be a nightmare for the markets.
So with no great enthusiasm, I suppose I want the Conservative party to win by a clear majority simply because this will be best for my money, my business and my investments.
I’ve just checked the odds at the bookies, right now the odds being offered on a Conservative majority are 11/10 and on a Labour majority 9/2. So the odds are on a Conservative victory.
Simply from the position of my money lets hope the odds stay the same and lets hope the bookies are right.
- Please do check out our website https://thenimbletrader.co.uk if you’ve not yet joined us and are interested in finding out what we offer.
PPS. The Twitter ‘handle’ is @nimbletraders I usually post at least once a day.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.