Beginning to See the Light: It’s Because We’re British….

 

‘Oh no, no you can’t disguise
(You can’t disguise, no you can’t disguise)
Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies’

 
We start once again with the World Cup. Why not, we might win it!

The first competition was held in 1930, but as we, in our eyes, we were the unofficial ‘world
champions’ we didn’t enter.

We first raced the competition with our presence in 1950, unfortunately we lost to the USA, crashing out in the group stages. Worse was to follow when, in 1953, the Hungarians came to Wembley winning 6-3, our first defeat on home soil. To prove it wasn’t a fluke they beat us 7-1 at home.

Conclusion, we weren’t anywhere as near as good as we thought.

I make this point, because a large part of Brexit was based on similar thinking. We are GB, we are
great, overseas entities such as the EU hold us back from our destiny.

Brexit was about former glories. They key is the use of the past tense; Brexit was based on romantic notions of the past.

Included in this is racism, the notion of national superiority.

Instead Brexit has left us isolated in the face of a storm; the least successful economy in the G7, half the country seemingly on strike, and a huge inflation and cost of living crisis. Perhaps our destiny is returning to the status of the “sick man of Europe”?
 

‘the least successful economy in the G7, half the country seemingly on strike, and a huge inflation and cost of living crisis’

 
The dreams and promises of earth-shattering trade deals are in tatters. Instead of the US we have
flawed deals with Australia and Japan. Sunak, forced to toe the party line ruling out any backsliding Swiss-style market deals with Europe, utters mealy-mouthed statements, such as EU relations would “evolve”. All the while the UK grows steadily poorer and lonelier.

Speaking last week, David Miliband, a former foreign secretary, said the UK’s global reputation was
at a low ebb. “Our influence abroad – based on pragmatism, legality, responsibility and commitment
– has been badly tarnished. We should be all-in on European political cooperation and the same on
energy security.”

The US opinion of a post-Brexit UK seems to switch between pity, puzzlement and ridicule. While
France has used the leverage Brexit has given them to hijack our supposed special relationship.

For the majority Brexit has delivered nothing other than disappointment and more problems.
Swati Dhingra, the newest member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC), said
in an interview that Brexit is contributing to a surge in food prices.

Dhingra said 75% of UK imports were from the EU, which meant “naturally, if non-tariff barriers start to kick in there, we are going to see that – not fully but manifest to some degree – in food prices.”

She added: “No matter which kind of analysis you look at”, there was a minimum economic hit from
Brexit of 2% of GDP from trade effects alone. This would be amplified further by costs from weaker
business investment, lower foreign direct investment, and reduced productivity.”

She also referred to depreciation of sterling immediately after the 2016 referendum which was the
biggest fall for any of the world’s four major currencies since 1944. It was “really the big news” in terms of Brexit’s impact, as the depreciation “showed up as reduced real wages as well as through prices going up” as the cost of imports increased.

Supporting research by the London School of Economics (LSE) found that, rather than the war in
Ukraine, the pandemic, or “global factors”, it was the extra red tape incurred by Brexit that had the biggest impact on prices. The cost of food imported from the EU added a total of £210 (6%) to the average household’s grocery bill over 2020 and 2021.
 

‘rather than the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, or “global factors”, it was the extra red tape incurred by Brexit that had the biggest impact on prices’

 
In addition to costs, Brexit has caused unnecessary wastage of foodstuffs. An estimated 7bn meals
went to waste this year. The National Farmers’ Union reported that C.40% of its members had lost
crops primarily due to a shortage of seasonal workers that had, pre-Brexit come over from the
continent.

Many other sectors are negatively impacted by Brexit restricting EU nationals from coming here to
work, for example the NHS. Recent research by the found that, “The situation in social care is the
most urgent”, with would-be care workers barred from coming to this country.

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows that these issues are becoming clearer to the
electorate:
 
• 66%of voters now believe Brexit has “gone badly” while only 22% think it has gone well.
• Conservative voters are fairly evenly split, with 51% saying it has gone well and 39% that it
has gone badly.
• 59% of all voters want to rejoin the EU.
• 34% want to have a closer relationship while remaining outside the bloc.
• 15% want the status quo.
• 14% want even less to do with the EU.
 
Finally people are realising the detrimental effects of border controls, with 57% supporting
removing all document and ID checks (such as passport controls and documents for exports and
imports) while 21% do not.

The impact of border controls is greater than ever envisaged; for a typical small business getting
products into EU states used to take 2-days now it can take 21-days, meaning that that trade
between the UK and EU has fallen by a third.

The Office for Budget Responsibility calculates this will make Britain 4% worse off, representing C.£100bn less cash generated each year, means up to £40bn less tax revenues. Remember, tax revenues funds schools, hospitals, and all the things we expect.

The heady days of 2019, when Jacob Rees-Mogg said, “I can see the opportunities of cheaper food,
clothing and footwear, helping most of all the incomes of the least well-off in our society”, seem a lifetime ago.

What is the governments response? Crank up the culture wars.

We have immigration simmering away nicely, to that we can add strikers and union barons all hell bent on doing the country down.

On Sunday, the governments supporters sat down to a breakfast treat, as the Conservative party
chairman, Nadhim Zahawi insulted NHS workers with a “ludicrous” suggestion that it is the wrong
time to strike over low pay because it would help Vladimir Putin divide the west. By striking, he said nurses were playing into the hands of the Russian president, who wants to see more inflation in western economies.
 

‘he said nurses were playing into the hands of the Russian president’

 
The Royal College of Nurses (RCN) responded saying that it was government ministers who were
refusing to open negotiations over the NHS pay deal, and indicating they would be willing to look at a sub-inflation offer. For the record, the government had previously offered 3% which, with inflation currently at 11%, equates to a pay rise of -8%.

Zahawi said: “This is a time to come together and to send a very clear message to Mr Putin that
we’re not going to be divided in this way … our message to the unions is to say this is not a time to strike, this is a time to try to negotiate.”

In response, Pat Cullen, the RCN’s general secretary, said it was a “new low” for the government to
“use Russia’s war in Ukraine as a justification for a real-terms pay cut for nurses in the UK…… I
reiterate my commitment to meeting with ministers to address our dispute. Instead of negotiating
with nurses, they are choosing strike action.”

Sara Gorton, the head of health at Unison, said: “But instead of taking responsibility for trying to solve the growing staffing crisis, ministers want to ratchet up the rhetoric and pick fights with ambulance workers and their NHS colleagues.”

Christine Jardine, the Lib Dems’ Cabinet Office spokesperson showed a clear understanding of the
situation:, said: “Conservative ministers wasted billions of taxpayers’ money on dodgy PPE contracts and now are refusing to offer a fair pay rise to nurses. It is a clear demonstration of how out of touch Zahawi and this Conservative government really are.”

The truth of the situation is that it suits the government to do nothing. This, allied to comments
about Putin, strikers letting the country down, and spoiling the Christmas season is their way of
controlling the narrative. They are trying to pit the electorate against the workers.

There are some in cabinet who believe that successive tranches of Conservative legislation have
made it much harder for workers’ to organise and sustain strike action, therefore toughing it out will see the strikers bought to heel.
 

‘successive tranches of Conservative legislation have made it much harder for workers’ to organise and sustain strike action’

 
In addition, not all nurses will be striking as, in some areas, strike ballots did not meet the high thresholds of approval required to take lawful action.

This is becomes a battle over public opinion; who will the electorate choose? Workers of
government? Back in the day the Tories lambasted “over-mighty union barons” for “holding the
country to ransom”, an approach that resonated with many voters. Today, with union powers so
diminished, this approach is flawed.

Union leaders sound credible when they say that this winters disputes are a genuine last resort, “a cry for help” by their desperate members.

Ministers are gambling that the long-game will win the day, as a senior Tory said, “The moment
people start suffering, I think opinion will tip against the unions.” Whilst there is limited public support for the rail strikes, the RCN appears to be in a stronger position. An Opinium poll for Sunday’s Observer shows:
 
• 57% of people surveyed support the nurses, compared to 30% who oppose them.
• 42% blame the government for the situation, with 23% blaming unions.
 
Unions representing NHS workers are discussing coordinated strikes which are designed to ensure
“maximum impact”, in the hope that the government will come to the negotiating table. There is the
potential that ministers and the right-wing media portray this as conspiring to accentuate the
distress inflicted on the public.

In addition, the strikes might allow the government to pass off the strikes as the cause of a worse
than usual winter for the NHS. If so, they must think the public are as blinkered as they are if they have missed the chaotic state of the service.

Government should realise that its role is to do just that, govern rather than letting he situations drift, and trying to distance themselves from the disputes by refusing to get engage in negotiations.

In a crisis voters expect government to deal with the situation not sit on the side-lines playing
politics. Sunak is disingenuous in his pretence that he does not have the power to settle these
disputes, government has the power to do as it wishes. Their check and balance is the approval of
Parliament.
 

‘They have the ability to end all the strikes, they are choosing not to’

 
We are now well into a winter of discontent. Currently, it is clear that NHS workers have public
support. The dispute on the trains, and post is ongoing and people seem indifferent. There is the
usual myopic support from those that still believe in this government, mixed with those who
understand the need for pay increases.

As the disputes drag on it is very difficult to predict how the public will react. The government is doing all it can to control the narrative, supported by large sections of the media, e.g., The Daily Mail and Fascist GB News.

Ironically, in a client meeting last week, I was told that the strikes were all the work of Putin, and reminded that in the 1960’s and 1970’s Harold Wilson, the then Labour leader, was a reputed lackey of the USSR. Not forgetting, the links in the 1980’s between the NUM, Libya, and the USSR.

What is key to all of this,# is the public’s understanding of the governments actions. They have the ability to end all the strikes, they are choosing not to. Their actions are that of an administration outof-time, a party that is ungovernable led by an individual out of his depth.
Collectively, they have fostered the single biggest political mistake in living memory, Brexit. They can’t and won’t admit this mistake, instead they create situation to divert attention away from their own failings.
 

‘What have I, what have I done to deserve this?
What have I, what have I, what have I done to deserve this?’

 

This week we feature British exceptionalism, the underlying belief that we are better. This is the underlying driver of Brexit, including the racist element. It was people wanting to wallow in their memories of when they thought we were a world power. I say “thought” because WW1 saw our powers diminish, and WW2 ended them, therefore many are too young for this to be relevant.

As an example, I have used football and the World Cup. When we did lower ourselves to enter we were found wanting, something that hasn’t changed a great deal since then.

Statistically, Brexit failure has been well documented, and the evidence is overwhelming. Opinion polls send an equally clear message, if there was a Brexit referendum today we would vote “remain” and with a clearer majority than in 2016.

The government’s response is to turn inwards, and to attempt turning the electorate against itself. Their attempt to pit strikers against the country is derisory, if it wasn’t so pathetic it would be funny.

Will it work? I have a horrible feeling that it might, there are a lot of gullible people out there. Does it actually matter? Likely not, the government was always going to muddle through to the bitter end anyway.

They are overwhelmed by rot, there is the Lady Mone / PPE / VIP fast-lane scandal. There is Dominic Raab bullying all and sundry, and then refusing to have his Cretan holiday interrupted sentencing many Afghans to imprisonment, torture, and death.

Their flagship policies of yesteryear such as privatisation, continue to dismay. Last week it was revealed that Thames Water, which supplies 15 million customers across London and the SE, made profits of £493.5m.

The chief executive of campaign group River Action, James Wallace, said:

“The challenges facing Thames Water and all our water companies were not caused by a random drought year or other short-term crises. The industry [has] had decades to prepare for the catastrophic impacts of climate breakdown on its Victorian sewage and water supply system. We desperately need leadership from the government and commitments from water industry CEOs to deliver a properly funded plan to modernise and adapt our water infrastructure to meet the requirements of a hotter, drier and stormier future.”

Thames has £13.8bn of  debts. Its shareholders include the Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC, Britain’s pension fund for academics USS, the BT pension scheme Hermes, and Canadian and Australian investment giants.

The profit figures were flattered by a £580m gain on the performance of approximately £11bn it has invested in derivative financial instruments. I can’t help wondering who would have bailed them out had these bets gone the other way?

Lyrically, we start with a tribute to the last Christine McVie who found global fame with Fleetwood Mac. The song “Little Lies” seems an understatement, but she didn’t write one called bloody great lies! We end with the Pet Shop Boys and Dusty Springfield with “ What Have I Done to Deserve This”. I keep asking myself the same!

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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